SPC AC 131728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
   IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the
   Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late
   Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which
   could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90
   mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand
   MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the
   Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater
   uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind
   potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential
   persists.

   ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys...
   A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High
   Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening
   of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the
   Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is
   expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of
   a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central
   States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support
   downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense
   700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This
   should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO
   Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with
   semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the
   convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime,
   embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a
   QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater
   with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level
   moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to
   weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area
   as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But
   some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across
   the Lower OH Valley.

   ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
   South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep
   convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly
   low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward
   across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings
   indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles,
   conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral
   to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong
   low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley
   overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is
   likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection
   during the evening and overnight.

   A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the
   Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging
   wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more
   conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys.

   ..Grams.. 03/13/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z