SPC AC 181741

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday
   afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very
   large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is
   also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on
   Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will
   intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to
   eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the
   Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the
   surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia
   into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward
   into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing
   by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen,
   one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High
   Plains near the Black Hills.

   ...Central into Southern Plains...
   Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along
   the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with
   a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the
   region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the
   trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from
   southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A
   capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the
   secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that
   initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all
   severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this
   scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that
   can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest
   potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal
   for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually
   intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east.
   These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and
   could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in
   Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool
   development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting
   potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts.

   Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less
   certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a
   storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a
   discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the
   southern fringe of the mid-level ascent.

   ...Florida...
   Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface
   boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast
   of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the
   afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave
   trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures
   aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for
   large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as
   organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still
   possible.

   ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota...
   The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps
   upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to
   develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will
   be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads
   and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized
   storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk.

   ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024

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