ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202057

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   Fire weather concerns remain limited through the extended period.
   Medium and long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict a
   synoptic regime unfavorable for widespread fire weather potential
   through at least early next week. The upper trough currently over
   the upper MS River valley is expected to gradually shift east over
   the next few days and will support somewhat widespread precipitation
   chances across the Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and Northeast. An
   amplification of the upper trough across the inter-mountain West and
   Plains through the weekend will promote dry, but relatively benign
   conditions across the Southwest/Rockies. The development of a lee
   cyclone along the northern High Plains on D4/Saturday may support a
   dry return flow regime across the southern Plains, but recent
   rainfall will likely limit fuel status. Ensemble cluster analyses
   suggest a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week
   with the potential for one or more upper waves migrating across the
   Southwest/southern High Plains during the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday
   time period. While no strong signals are noted in recent ensemble
   and deterministic solutions, these waves could present opportunities
   for fire weather concerns across parts of the western Plains where
   little rainfall is expected through the middle of next week.

   ..Moore.. 11/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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