ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 181854

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   Meteorologically Critical fire weather conditions are expected
   tomorrow (Sunday) across portions of New Mexico and Texas, as
   breezy/gusty surface winds overlap a hot (80s to upper 90s F) and
   dry (minimum RH values less than 15%) air mass. However, rainfall
   over the past 48 hours (AHPS suggests 0.25-1+ inches) leads to
   uncertainties on fuel receptiveness and precludes introducing a
   Critical fire weather area at this time. The rainfall was more
   spotty further west across portions of northern Arizona, though
   fuels remain marginally dry across this area, which should keep any
   fire weather concerns Elevated even amidst near Critical
   meteorological fire weather conditions. There is also the potential
   for lightning holdovers from the recent thunderstorms to become
   active as extremely dry air and breezy/gusty winds overlap
   increasingly receptive fuels.

   ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level southwesterly flow will begin to strengthen today across
   the Southwest as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS. Dry
   and windy conditions are expected across the Southwest as a result
   of the deeply mixed airmass transporting some of this stronger flow
   to the surface, and a lee cyclone tightening the surface pressure
   gradient. Sustained winds may be has high as 20 to 25 mph with
   single-digit relative humidity. This will support Critical fire
   weather conditions in local areas with drier fuels, but amid only
   marginally dry fuels, have elected to keep an Elevated delineation
   for now. If stronger winds or drier fuels are apparent, an upgrade
   to Critical may be needed in later outlooks.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)