Mesoscale Discussion 0158
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Missouri across southern Illinois and
   toward the lower Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270600Z - 270800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may eventually form within a west-east oriented
   zone as midlevel convection moves out of Missouri and toward the
   lower Ohio Valley. Marginal hail or gusty winds may occur later
   tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends indicate gradually
   increasing midlevel convection over central MO, near the midlevel
   temperature gradient. Though no lightning has been observed, models
   do support increasing trends as the activity possibly interacts with
   increasing low-level moisture across the MS/OH Valleys.

   If the area of convection can increase in size and intensity, gusty
   winds and/or marginal hail could develop, as lapse rates are very
   steep aloft, and deep-layer shear is strong. In general, the
   activity is expected to remain elevated, barring any eventual cold
   pool from aggregating showers or storms. As such, limited severe
   potential exists in the near term, but trends will be monitored
   tonight.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 02/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37589094 37679122 37939178 38139187 38349177 38509152
               38479067 38458902 38288771 38018725 37748709 37358718
               37158742 37198806 37338904 37589094