Mesoscale Discussion 0887
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Missouri southward across central
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220815Z - 221015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated/occasionally strong storms expected to continue
   over the next few hours.  Isolated and marginal nature of the risk
   may preclude the need for serious WW consideration.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a vigorous storm which has
   evolved not far from Hot Springs/Mountain View Arkansas, within an
   axis of moderate instability near/ahead of the surface cold front,
   per RAP-based objective analysis.  Farther northeastward within this
   same CAPE axis, a couple of stronger cells have evolved over
   southeastern Missouri.

   While isolated stronger storms will remain possible across this
   region over the next few hours, large-scale forcing for ascent
   remains subtle at best.  Still, with southwesterly flow aloft
   increasing gradually with height, shear sufficient for
   multicell/weak supercell storms is evident, supporting isolated risk
   for hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range with the strongest
   updrafts.  At this time, the anticipated isolated nature of the risk
   appears likely to preclude the need for WW issuance.  However, we
   will continue to monitor convective evolution for any signs that
   coverage may become greater than currently anticipated, which could
   warrant further consideration.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34009311 34219399 34639403 35189300 35819235 36809129
               37179016 36788963 36189095 35479147 35019116 34639116
               34169178 33889244 34009311