Mesoscale Discussion 1095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern CO/Far Southeast WY/Northeast NM to western
   OK/TX Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 312000Z - 312130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
   afternoon, initially across northeast New Mexico and eastern
   Colorado, and possibly far southeast Wyoming. A Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch is likely for at least parts of the region.

   DISCUSSION...An expanding and deepening cu field continues to
   develop across the Colorado/northeast New Mexico mountains, where
   incipient thunderstorm development is noted, toward the Raton Mesa
   vicinity. Upper 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints are generally
   present across the adjacent High Plains, with ample insolation
   yielding weakening boundary layer inhibition and a trend toward
   moderate destabilization.

   At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over
   the next few hours (into 3-5pm MDT), somewhat preferentially across
   the Raton Mesa vicinity, and northward toward the Palmer Divide. A
   few late-day/early evening severe storms might even occur in the
   evolving post-frontal regime/near a surface low across southeast
   Wyoming, even with persistent low clouds and formidable inhibition
   currently in place across far northeast Colorado into southeast
   Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle.

   Easterly near-surface winds beneath modest strength westerlies will
   generally yield 35-45 kt of effective shear, sufficient for
   supercells and sustained multicells, although weaker westerlies will
   exist southward into and across eastern New Mexico. Large hail can
   be expected, and a brief tornado risk may also exist. Multiple
   southeastward-moving clusters should evolve regionally by early
   evening with severe-caliber wind gusts also a possibility.

   ..Guyer/Smith.. 05/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   41180466 40390325 38900320 36680264 35460263 34970371
               35370511 36440475 38220506 39950511 41180466