Mesoscale Discussion 1169
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

   Areas affected...Oklahoma and Southern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...392...

   Valid 042346Z - 050045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390, 392
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop across parts of
   southern Kansas and Oklahoma over the next one to two hours. Large
   hail and severe gusts will be possible, and a tornado or two will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows several
   cumulus towers forming immediately to the west of Oklahoma City and
   further southwest toward Lawton. The cumulus towers are located
   within a very moist and unstable airmass. The latest RAP analysis
   has a corridor of extreme instability from north Texas into southern
   and west-central Oklahoma, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4000 to
   5000 J/kg range. This airmass, along with increasing large-scale
   ascent, associated with a vorticity max moving southeastward into
   Oklahoma, will likely result in rapid cell initiation across parts
   of southwest and west-central Oklahoma over the next hour. RAP
   forecast soundings around 00Z from near and to the west of Oklahoma
   City southwestward along the I-44 corridor, have 0-6 km shear in the
   30 to 35 knot range, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250
   m2/s2. This will likely support supercell development, with a threat
   for large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado or two. Convective
   coverage is expected to rapidly increase over the next couple of
   hours.

   Further to the north across southern Kansas, a strongly unstable
   airmass is also in place, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to
   3500 J/kg range. As the cluster of storms in south-central Kansas
   moves southward toward the Oklahoma state line over the next couple
   of hours, the severe threat is expected to increase. Isolated large
   hail and wind damage will be possible with these storms.

   ..Broyles.. 06/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   34069737 34299820 34649864 35299908 36219916 36809902
               37599871 37849830 37879778 37739726 37259700 36649700
               35569670 34779629 34299642 34119667 34069737