Mesoscale Discussion 1473
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central IL into central IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291642Z - 291745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop over
   the next couple of hours. Locally damaging gusts are possible. Watch
   issuance is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima is evident in
   water vapor imagery from near St. Louis into central IL. An isolated
   thunderstorm has developed over central IL on the leading edge of
   this vorticity max and along the southern fringe of modest vertical
   shear. A very moist and modestly unstable airmass resides downstream
   from this feature, and may support a couple of loosely organized
   cells through the afternoon. Locally damaging gusts may accompany
   this activity given increasing destabilization into the afternoon,
   and PW values greater than 1.75 inches enhancing wet microburst
   potential. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected
   given the overall marginal environment. However, trends will
   continue to be monitored, especially as additional storm development
   is possible later this afternoon along the southeast-advancing cold
   front currently draped across northern IL.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39968921 40298819 40298678 40148585 39878533 39468537
               39088584 38938704 38788793 38748899 38878972 39338974
               39618968 39968921