Mesoscale Discussion 1474
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Upper Peninsula into northern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291814Z - 291945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds of 40-60
   mph and a couple instances of hail to near 1 inch diameter through
   the afternoon. A watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
   surface low/triple point across the eastern U.P into northern Lower
   MI through the afternoon. A moist airmass with surface dewpoints in
   the upper 60s F and heating into the mid/upper 70s is contributing
   to weak destabilization amid strong vertical shear. Midlevel lapse
   rates will remain poor, but sufficient instability and shear may
   support a few briefly strong/severe cells capable of mainly gusty
   winds and marginally severe hail. A severe thunderstorm watch is not
   expected.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   45218755 46148725 46718656 46848509 46288427 45318381
               44518428 43948524 44058613 44138661 45218755