Mesoscale Discussion 1609
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern South Dakota...Southwest
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527...529...

   Valid 140629Z - 140830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527, 529
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage and large-hail threat will likely continue
   across parts of central and eastern South Dakota over the next few
   hours, and could affect southwest Minnesota later tonight. Gusts
   over 80 mph will be possible ahead of the ongoing bow. Weather watch
   issuance will need to be considered for parts of eastern South
   Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
   bow echo just to the west and northwest of Pierre, South Dakota. The
   bow is moving east-southeastward along a corridor of moderate
   instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2000
   J/kg range. The line appears to be supported by a 45 to 55 knot
   mid-level speed max over northwestern South Dakota. As the line
   continues to move east-southeastward at around 50 knots, severe
   gusts will be likely along the leading edge of the bow. Wind gusts
   above 80 mph will be possible near the apex of the bow. As the line
   moves further east, it will encounter stronger instability across
   southeastern South Dakota. This could help to maintain intensity
   with the line, making weather watch issuance likely across parts of
   eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota.

   ..Broyles.. 07/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45020128 44590141 44290135 43980089 43709952 43399773
               43299715 43389659 43509624 43859584 44559577 44899626
               45109769 45269957 45330086 45020128