Mesoscale Discussion 1632
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast PA into MD/DC/northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151941Z - 152145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind is possible through late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening this afternoon from
   south-central PA into northern VA, within an increasingly hot and
   well-mixed environment. While stronger large-scale ascent is
   displaced to the north of this region, continued
   heating/destabilization could support a gradual increase in storm
   coverage and intensity through the remainder of the afternoon.
   Deep-layer shear is generally modest and low-level flow is rather
   weak, but isolated damaging downburst winds will be possible with
   the stronger cells, as temperatures approach 100 F across the
   region. Northern portions of the MCD area could see another round of
   strong to locally severe storms this evening, as an MCV currently
   moving across western PA glances the region.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38667882 39537803 40397717 40547662 40517594 40417544
               38777633 38117747 38077802 38127862 38197906 38667882