Mesoscale Discussion 1642
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0826 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...Northern Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 541...

   Valid 160126Z - 160330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 541 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for significant wind gusts upwards of 80-95
   mph and embedded QLCS tornadoes will continue as a severe MCS pushes
   east across northern Illinois.

   DISCUSSION...The evolution of a severe MCS is progressing as
   expected with two primary bowing segments evident in regional radar
   across north-central IL and to the east of the Davenport, IA area.
   Several embedded circulations have been noted as well as multiple
   reports of wind gusts over 75 mph (including one gust of 93 mph in
   Stephenson county, IL) across eastern IA and northwest IL. Latest
   WoFS guidance continues to capture recent convective trends well and
   depicts the potential for similar wind speeds within the two bowing
   segments over the next couple of hours. Given aforementioned reports
   and favorable environmental conditions downstream, these forecasts
   appear to be reasonable. Observed storm motion tracks and WoFS
   timing guidance both suggest the MCS will be approaching the lower
   Lake Michigan shore between 02 to 03 UTC with a slightly later
   arrival time for eastern IL/far western IN.

   ..Moore.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40579052 40779009 41058996 41229002 41478971 41738928
               41968915 42358908 42518898 42488784 42358769 41888753
               41638744 40788751 40218794 39918868 39988923 40279004
               40579052