Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme east central Iowa
Northern Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Extreme southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90
mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more bow
echoes from Iowa into northern Illinois this evening, with the
potential to produce swaths of significant severe gusts up to 75-90
mph and several tornadoes with embedded circulations. The storms
will spread into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan
later tonight.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Benton Harbor MI
to 55 miles south southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 539...WW 540...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 29040.
...Thompson
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme east central Iowa
Northern Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Extreme southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90
mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more bow
echoes from Iowa into northern Illinois this evening, with the
potential to produce swaths of significant severe gusts up to 75-90
mph and several tornadoes with embedded circulations. The storms
will spread into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan
later tonight.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Benton Harbor MI
to 55 miles south southeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 539...WW 540...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 29040.
...Thompson
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 541 TORNADO IA IL IN MI WI LM 152350Z - 160600Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NW BEH/BENTON HARBOR MI/ - 55SSE MMO/MARSEILLES IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /46ESE BAE - 55S JOT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..80 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29040.
LAT...LON 42778536 40628637 40629019 42778931
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 541 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 541
VALID 160425Z - 160540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE SPI
TO 15 E DNV TO 20 NE LAF TO 10 ESE SBN TO 20 SSE MKG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
..MOORE..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...GRR...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 541
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC017-039-049-069-085-087-099-103-113-169-183-160540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS ELKHART FULTON
HUNTINGTON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE
MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE
WABASH WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-027-077-149-159-160540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY CASS
KALAMAZOO ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 541
VALID 160325Z - 160440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MLI
TO 40 ENE BMI TO 45 SW VPZ TO 25 WNW VPZ TO 35 ENE RAC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
..MOORE..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...GRR...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 541
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC017-019-039-057-075-107-113-115-125-129-137-143-147-167-171-
179-183-203-160440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS CHAMPAIGN DE WITT
FULTON IROQUOIS LOGAN
MCLEAN MACON MASON
MENARD MORGAN PEORIA
PIATT SANGAMON SCOTT
TAZEWELL VERMILION WOODFORD
$$
INC007-017-039-049-069-073-085-087-091-099-103-111-113-127-131-
141-149-169-181-183-160440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CASS ELKHART
FULTON HUNTINGTON JASPER
KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE
MARSHALL MIAMI NEWTON
NOBLE PORTER PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH STARKE WABASH
WHITE WHITLEY
$$
MIC005-015-021-027-077-149-159-160440-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
CASS KALAMAZOO ST. JOSEPH
VAN BUREN
$$
LMZ043-046-080-744-745-777-779-844-845-876-878-160440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 541
VALID 160135Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MLI
TO 45 ENE MLI TO 5 SE MSN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642
..MOORE..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...IWX...GRR...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 541
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-019-031-037-039-043-053-057-063-073-075-089-091-093-
095-097-099-103-105-107-111-113-115-123-125-141-143-147-155-175-
179-183-197-201-203-160240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CHAMPAIGN
COOK DE KALB DE WITT
DUPAGE FORD FULTON
GRUNDY HENRY IROQUOIS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
KNOX LAKE LA SALLE
LEE LIVINGSTON LOGAN
MCHENRY MCLEAN MACON
MARSHALL MASON OGLE
PEORIA PIATT PUTNAM
STARK TAZEWELL VERMILION
WILL WINNEBAGO WOODFORD
$$
INC007-017-049-073-089-091-099-111-127-131-141-149-181-160240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CASS FULTON
JASPER LAKE LA PORTE
MARSHALL NEWTON PORTER
PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE
WHITE
$$
MIC005-015-021-027-077-159-160240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
CASS KALAMAZOO VAN BUREN
$$
WIC059-101-105-127-160240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENOSHA RACINE ROCK
WALWORTH
$$
LMZ043-046-080-646-675-740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-844-845-
876-878-160240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN
BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (80%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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