Mesoscale Discussion 1645
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1111 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...Lower Michigan and adjacent portions of Indiana and
   Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 160411Z - 160615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching MCV may
   pose a severe hail/wind threat heading into the early morning hours.
   Trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Convection across northern IN/southern MI within a warm
   advection branch ahead of an approaching MCV (currently over lower
   Lake Michigan) has shown signs of periodic intensification over the
   past 1-2 hours based on trends in GOES IR imagery and vertically
   integrated ice. Nocturnal cooling has been somewhat muted by
   high-quality low-level moisture already in place across northern IN
   into lower MI (dewpoints in the low 70s), resulting in only a weakly
   capped environment based on a modified 00 UTC DTX sounding. Despite
   somewhat poor hodograph structure above 4 km, around 40 knots of
   effective bulk shear should support some storm organization with any
   cells that can remain more discrete within the narrow warm advection
   regime. Consequently, a severe hail and wind risk may persist across
   lower MI for the next several hours. Convective trends -
   particularly storm mode - will continue to be monitored for the need
   for watch issuance later tonight.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41148477 41468498 41738524 41938561 42178575 42538554
               42758506 42908445 42938406 42928372 42878329 42668290
               42328280 41998290 41588322 41378353 41248394 41148477