Mesoscale Discussion 1671
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

   Areas affected...Northern Virginia and Maryland

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...

   Valid 172026Z - 172200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat for WW 553 continues, with
   the primary threat being for thunderstorms capable of damaging wind
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased on the western
   periphery of the watch area, with current radar reflectivity showing
   some initial organization of convection into bowing segments. 

   These thunderstorms are in an environment characterized by weak
   deep-layer vertical shear and only modest buoyancy, but steep
   low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layer forecast
   profiles support the continued downward transport of momentum from
   thunderstorm downdrafts. The greatest threat for wind damage will be
   with any organized bowing segments, as well as where favorable
   thunderstorm outflow mergers occur. Additionally, short-term WoFS
   guidance suggests elevated probabilities of 50+ MPH wind gusts over
   the next several hours. 

   This convective activity is expected to continue to progress
   eastward into Maryland this afternoon and into this evening, before
   eventually dying off as the nocturnal boundary-layer stabilizes.

   ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37607926 38067899 38797855 39467815 39607756 39607681
               39597631 39477595 39177580 38727587 38357609 38017641
               37717679 37507717 37457748 37437807 37487873 37467915
               37607926