Mesoscale Discussion 1678
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Louisiana into extreme
   southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181822Z - 181915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible over the next few
   hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular convection has recently organized into
   an MCS with some bowing characteristics associated with merging cold
   pools. This bowing feature is progressing into a strongly unstable
   environment (i.e. 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) driven by strong surface
   heating and low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Though vertical wind
   shear is weak, this bowing structure/cold pool progressing into this
   buoyant airmass may promote the development of strong wind gusts,
   and a severe gust cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe
   threat should be sparse, so a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30989158 31269090 31139000 30848942 30488937 30148949
               29968988 30079049 30179092 30369106 30989158