Mesoscale Discussion 2192
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern oklahoma and northern TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031949Z - 032045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms moving into/developing in a strongly sheared air
   mass over parts of OK/TX may pose an increasing risk of tornadoes. A
   new Tornado Watch is likely needed.

   DISCUSSION...A robust cluster of storms is organizing west of a
   strongly sheared and destabilizing air mass across parts of southern
   OK and western North TX. While predominately linear, these storms
   are moving into a modified warm frontal zone with strong low-level
   effective helicity (0-1 km >350 ms2/s2 from the TLX VAD) sufficient
   for tornadoes. Diffuse heating and subtle confluence are also
   apparent ahead of the QLCS across western north TX. Hi-res guidance
   and observational trends suggests additional, more discrete, storms
   may develop/mature this afternoon. With moderate buoyancy and
   large-low level hodograph curvature, supercells and QLCS
   mesovorticies with the potential for tornadoes could materialize. A
   Tornado watch is likely.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35229824 35549777 35699693 35779631 35569547 35409513
               34709487 34569494 34189520 33679616 33539672 33499722
               33739773 34249832 35229824