Mesoscale Discussion 2191
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...western North Texas and southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 701...

   Valid 031913Z - 032045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 701
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe storms continue to organize early this afternoon.
   The risk for damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two should
   increase as storms grow upscale.

   DISCUSSION...Across WW701, intermittent heating amidst strong
   low-level warm air advection has resulted in several clusters of
   strong to severe storms across portions of western North TX. Within
   an unstable and moderately sheared environment, further
   intensification/development of new storms is expected this afternoon
   and evening across portions of northwest TX and southwest OK. Storm
   mode has been mixed with predominately linear elements near I-20 and
   a few more cellular structures farther north. 

   Hi-res guidance suggests the additional storms that develop will
   prompt upscale growth into one or more linear clusters or a QLCS
   with time. Storms should spread over much of western North TX and
   into southwestern Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening. The
   potential for numerous storm interactions and upscale growth
   suggests the primary severe risk over the next few hours will be
   wind and hail. However, shear profiles are strong enough to support
   supercells, and some guidance does show more discrete development is
   possible ahead of the primary band of storms. Should this occur, a
   risk for a few tornadoes could materialize near the warm front where
   low-level hodograph curvature is maximized.

   ..Lyons.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32320030 33929998 34879942 35239900 34959807 34589782
               33899756 33119750 32609813 31969900 31929907 31920010
               32320030