Mesoscale Discussion 2214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

   Areas affected...the Florida Keys

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061905Z - 062100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief waterspout/onshore tornado will be possible this
   afternoon within showery convection on the outer/northern periphery
   of Hurricane Rafael.  Watch issuance will likely remain unnecessary.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar reflectivity loop from KBYX (Key West
   WSR-88D) continues to depict a very loosely organized band of
   convection/showers moving west-northwestward on the northern fringe
   of Rafael, whose center remains just south of western Cuba at this
   time.  A few of the showers have exhibited weak/rather transient
   low-level rotation over the past several hours.  With low-level flow
   quasi-unidirectional/westerly, but increasing in magnitude with
   height, low-level shear is sufficient to support continued/weak
   rotation within stronger convective elements.  Overall however,
   given the weak/brief nature of the circulations that should remain
   the case this afternoon, and thus no more than a weak/brief spout or
   tornado expected, a tornado watch is not anticipated.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 11/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24758288 24678188 24858116 24788096 24598100 24458177
               24498288 24638300 24758288