Mesoscale Discussion 2278
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of central/southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712...

   Valid 250249Z - 250415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary concern across the southern
   portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 through at least 04Z.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows ongoing semi-discrete
   supercells tracking slowly east-southeastward along the pre-frontal
   confluence zone in central/southeast TX. The EWX VWP continues to
   sample around 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented mostly perpendicular
   to the low-level zone of ascent. This, combined with favorable
   buoyancy/steep midlevel lapse rates (see CRP 00Z sounding), will
   support the maintenance of these semi-discrete supercells. The
   primary risk with these storms continues to be large hail (generally
   up to 1.75 inches), though an isolated 2 inch hailstone cannot be
   ruled out. As midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent continues
   overspreading this activity ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough,
   storms may tend to grow upscale into a line, generally reducing the
   hail threat. Locally damaging gusts will still be possible, though
   increasing nocturnal static stability may lessen the threat to some
   extent.

   ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29219800 30499682 30539654 30259628 29749651 28949730
               28939763 29029791 29219800