Mesoscale Discussion 2308
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...Central/Northern Alabama into extreme southern
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 290059Z - 290230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening
   from central Alabama, northward, possibly into extreme southern
   Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...LLJ continues to strengthen across MS into middle TN
   early this evening. Low-level warm advection is intense ahead of the
   primary squall line, and this is primarily responsible for scattered
   convection that is evolving along the MS/AL border. While the lead
   warm-advection storms are likely a bit elevated, surface dew points
   have risen into the lower 60s as far north as Jackson TN. With time
   lower 60s dew points will surge across the remainder of northern AL.
   While surface-based buoyancy will remain a bit weak across this
   region, intense shear will contribute to the longevity of upstream
   squall line, along with scattered warm advection storms.

   New tornado watch is likely warranted downstream.

   ..Darrow/Gleason.. 12/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   32428817 35118787 34898591 32308630 32428817