Mesoscale Discussion 2323
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312104Z - 312300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose
   a risk for small hail and perhaps increasing potential for scattered
   surface gusts approaching severe limits through 6-7 PM EST.

   DISCUSSION...Despite rather limited destabilization (including
   mixed-layer CAPE generally on the order of 250 J/kg), forcing for
   ascent, near a weak developing low within surface troughing to the
   lee of the Blue Ridge, has provided support for a developing
   quasi-linear cluster of thunderstorms east-south of the
   Charlottesville and Lynchburg vicinities.  Shear through the
   relatively shallow convective layer is strong and contributing
   convective organization, with sufficient low-level moistening and
   mid-level cooling to provide support for small to perhaps marginally
   severe hail in the stronger updrafts.  

   As activity develops east-northeastward with the forcing for ascent
   during the next few hours, it is possible that modest boundary-layer
   temperature and dew point spreads will contribute to sufficient
   sub-cloud evaporative cooling and melting to support a gradual
   increase in potential for strong surface gusts.  Given ambient mean
   flow in the lowest 3 km or so above ground level on the order of
   35-40 kt, a couple of gusts may approach or briefly exceed severe
   limits.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 12/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37657834 38987668 38817532 37397668 36687753 36917872
               37657834