Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central and east-central North Dakota
Central and northern South Dakota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1040 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Increasingly organized thunderstorms are expected to grow
in coverage and move northeastward across the watch area over the
next several hours. Though north of a warm front and nominally
elevated in character, this activity still may penetrate severe
gusts to the surface, as well as producing sporadic large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles west southwest of
Pierre SD to 5 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23035.
...Edwards
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central and east-central North Dakota
Central and northern South Dakota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1040 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Increasingly organized thunderstorms are expected to grow
in coverage and move northeastward across the watch area over the
next several hours. Though north of a warm front and nominally
elevated in character, this activity still may penetrate severe
gusts to the surface, as well as producing sporadic large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles west southwest of
Pierre SD to 5 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23035.
...Edwards
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 431 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 180340Z - 181100Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
70WSW PIR/PIERRE SD/ - 5NNE JMS/JAMESTOWN ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM EITHER SIDE /62E RAP - 75WNW FAR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT...LON 44750265 47779977 46229754 43210054
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 431 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 431
VALID 180935Z - 181040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW HON TO
55 SE MBG TO 35 W ABR TO 50 SW FAR TO 20 SSE FAR.
..LEITMAN..06/18/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC073-077-081-181040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
$$
SDC013-045-049-089-181040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK
MCPHERSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 431
VALID 180845Z - 180940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE PIR TO
15 NNW PHP TO 35 ESE MBG TO 45 N ABR TO 35 N FAR.
..LEITMAN..06/18/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC017-073-077-081-180940-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
SDC013-045-049-055-065-089-107-117-119-129-180940-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK
HAAKON HUGHES MCPHERSON
POTTER STANLEY SULLY
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 431
VALID 180750Z - 180840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PHP
TO 15 S MBG TO 45 E JMS TO 5 SE GFK TO 15 S HCO.
..LEITMAN..06/18/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-017-021-045-073-077-081-097-180840-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS DICKEY
LAMOURE RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT TRAILL
$$
SDC013-045-049-055-065-071-075-089-107-117-119-129-180840-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK
HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON
JONES MCPHERSON POTTER
STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 431
VALID 180635Z - 180740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE RAP TO
50 NNE MBG TO 40 WSW GFK TO 25 NNE GFK.
..LEITMAN..06/18/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-017-021-035-039-045-047-051-073-077-081-091-093-097-
180740-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS DICKEY
GRAND FORKS GRIGGS LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE
STUTSMAN TRAILL
$$
SDC013-021-041-045-049-055-065-071-075-089-107-117-119-129-137-
180740-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL DEWEY
EDMUNDS FAULK HAAKON
HUGHES JACKSON JONES
MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY
SULLY WALWORTH ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 431
VALID 180540Z - 180640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE RAP TO
35 ESE BIS TO 40 NNW JMS.
..LEITMAN..06/18/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-093-180640-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES DICKEY EDDY
EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH STUTSMAN
$$
SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-055-065-071-075-089-107-117-119-129-
137-180640-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK
HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON
JONES MCPHERSON POTTER
STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 431
VALID 180440Z - 180540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..06/18/24
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-015-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-059-085-093-103-
180540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BURLEIGH DICKEY
EDDY EMMONS FOSTER
GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON
SIOUX STUTSMAN WELLS
$$
SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-055-065-071-075-089-107-117-119-129-
137-180540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK
HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON
JONES MCPHERSON POTTER
STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.