Mesoscale Discussion 0319
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Missouri into central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011735Z - 011930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is expected along/north of a
   warm front this afternoon. Large to very large hail will be the
   initial threat. A greater tornado threat can be expected late
   afternoon/early evening with discrete storms near the boundary.On or
   more watches are possible this afternoon, but timing is not certain.

   DISCUSSION...The 12Z observed ILX sounding showed moderately steep
   mid-level lapse rates. As the warm front has lifted northward within
   the mid-Mississippi Valley, substantial low-level moistening has
   occurred in parts of central Illinois. With time, this boundary is
   expected to continue to lift northward. Initial weak, elevated
   convection has developed in northern Missouri and central Illinois.
   This activity should remain sub-severe in the short term. As
   destabilization continues into the afternoon, some of these storms
   may become surface based. Given the wind profiles and lapse rates,
   large hail would be possible. Very-large (2+ in.) hail could occur
   with the stronger supercells. Storms north of the warm front will
   remain elevated. Some increase in coverage and intensity appears
   possible as theta-e advection aloft increases as the 850 mb low
   deepens.

   There remains some uncertainty as to the exact timing of an increase
   in storm coverage. Several CAMs suggest coverage increases later in
   the afternoon as the upper trough moves farther east. The tornado
   threat will at least initially be low. However, low-level shear will
   increase late this afternoon/early evening. Storms ongoing near the
   warm front will consequently have a greater tornado potential at
   that time.

   On or more watches are possible this afternoon, but timing is not
   certain.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39109422 39629384 39939340 40399240 40429164 40438910
               40298802 39758767 38728788 38228828 38039132 38049180
               38619391 39109422