Mesoscale Discussion 0844
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0748 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...parts  of west central into north central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

   Valid 200048Z - 200245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A long-lived isolated supercell storm may be maintained at
   least another couple of hours, possibly impacting at least northern
   portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area by 10-11 PM CDT, with a
   risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches, strong, damaging wind
   gusts and perhaps a continuing risk for a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Embedded within southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on
   the order of 30-35 kt, an isolated intense supercell has been slowly
   propagating eastward, away from the initiating dryline, to the north
   of the Clinton-Sherman vicinity.  Low-level hodographs have been
   enlarging some, and a more notable increase in low-level shear is
   forecast through 04-06Z, along a strengthening southerly 850 mb jet
   (in excess of 50 kt) from northwest Texas toward the Medicine Loge
   KS area.  However, with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling,
   inhibition across and east of the dryline is already in the process
   of increasing, and lower/mid-tropospheric warming forecast across
   much of Oklahoma this evening will contribute further to this.  Even
   so, given the favorable shear beneath a seasonably strong westerly
   mid/upper jet nosing into the south central Great Plains, and the
   strong potential instability eastward into the I-35 corridor, it is
   possible that the ongoing supercell may be maintained another couple
   of hours, eastward through northern portions of the Greater Oklahoma
   City area.

   ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36039866 36089809 36029705 35899679 35629702 35609754
               35559807 35679862 36039866