Mesoscale Discussion 0957
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest/Central/South-Central OK...Far
   Northwest/North-Central TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 308...

   Valid 252240Z - 260015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 308 continues.

   SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including very large hail up to 4" and
   strong tornadoes, remain possible into central/south-central OK and
   north-central TX.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown a messy convective
   evolution across northwest TX and southwest OK over the past two
   hours, with the initially close-proximity initiation and numerous
   left-splits contributing to numerous interactions. Some trend back
   to a more discrete mode may be evolving, with 2 right-moving
   supercells now apparent over Cotton County OK, and Archer and Clay
   Counties in northwest TX. The southernmost supercell appears to be
   the strongest currently, with strong low-level rotation and 60 kft
   echo tops both noted in recent radar imagery.  

   Despite some boundary-layer cooling due to anvil shading, the
   airmass ahead of these cells is still extremely buoyant.
   Mesoanalysis estimates a large area of 3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE
   remains from northwest TX/southwest OK into central/south-central OK
   and north-central TX. Strong vertical shear exists as well, with
   over 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear sampled with the VAD profiles at
   both KFDR and KTLX. Some modest convective inhibition is likely in
   place downstream, particularly given the now cooler surface
   temperatures. However, the organized character to the ongoing storms
   coupled with increasing large-scale ascent, should help these storms
   persist in spite of this inhibition. The overall environment remains
   supportive of very large hail up to 4" in diameter, strong damaging
   gusts, and tornadoes. 

   Some additional development is possible in the wake of this main
   cluster across southwest OK where the airmass remains unstable.
   There may be some influence from storm outflow, but the large-scale
   ascent is just now beginning to arrive in this area, with additional
   convective initiation still possible.

   ..Mosier.. 05/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34819989 35569933 35789629 34439607 33559643 33449945
               34819989