Mesoscale Discussion 1130
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Colorado into western
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021952Z - 022145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms -- initially developing over the
   southeastern Colorado area -- may require WW consideration.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows TCU/CB
   development near and east of the Raton Mesas vicinity of
   southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico.  The convection
   is evolving on the western fringe of a north-south axis of 2000 to
   3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, and within an area of increasing
   large-scale UVV associated with a southwestern Colorado vort max,
   evident in water-vapor imagery.

   Mid-level flow across the discussion area remains somewhat weaker
   than areas both north and south, and as such, storms should remain
   somewhat-less organized.  This, combined with the isolated coverage
   of stronger storms that is currently expected, suggests that overall
   severe risk should remain somewhat localized.  Still, potential for
   large hail, and damaging wind gusts aided by evaporative potential
   within the deep surface-based mixed layer, suggests that WW issuance
   may need to be considered over the next 1 to 2 hours.

   ..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37010316 38070295 39100257 39610163 39770023 39509973
               37149980 37010316