Mesoscale Discussion 1629
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast NY/northern NJ into parts of southern New
   England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151814Z - 152015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are gradually strengthening early this
   afternoon across southeast NY and also across central MA. A
   low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching southern New England may
   support additional storm development through the afternoon, as any
   remaining MLCINH across the region continues to diminish.
   Low/midlevel flow is not particularly strong, but modest veering of
   the wind profile with height will support 20-30 kt of effective
   shear, which could support modest storm organization in the presence
   of moderate buoyancy. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support
   isolated damaging-wind potential with the strongest storms, while
   small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41467473 41837473 42077462 42077403 42207339 42607234
               43057111 43017072 42697062 42377086 42167081 41877047
               41777098 41397299 40977395 41027468 41467473