Mesoscale Discussion 1649
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0845 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into parts of MO and southwest
   IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545...

   Valid 161345Z - 161515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging/severe gusts may continue through
   the morning. Additional watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...One thunderstorm cluster with a history of producing
   severe gusts is currently near Kansas City, with another potentially
   severe storm cluster over north-central MO. Other less-organized
   convection is ongoing from southeast MO into southwest IL. Evolution
   of the ongoing convection through the morning remains uncertain,
   with a pocket of diurnal heating potential in advance of the
   north-central MO cluster, and some heating/destabilization also
   expected south of the storms across southeast MO/southwest IL. 

   MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and marginally supportive deep-layer
   shear could continue to support some organized severe-wind potential
   through the morning, especially in advance of the north-central MO
   cluster. Downstream watch issuance into parts of eastern MO is
   possible, depending on short-term convective trends. Some severe
   threat could also eventually evolve out of the southeast
   MO/southwest IL convection.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39729035 38748947 37948894 37168931 37249018 37779225
               38269348 38779467 38949478 39329508 39629480 39789342
               39729035