Mesoscale Discussion 2207
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...and
   southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 704...705...

   Valid 042054Z - 042230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704, 705 continues.

   SUMMARY...A favorable environment for a few tornadoes exists across
   northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri over
   the next 1 to 2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is moving through northeast
   Oklahoma. Surface winds have backed somewhat ahead of these
   supercells as a surface low continues northeast along the frontal
   boundary just south of Tulsa. Temperatures have warmed into the
   upper 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60 ahead of these storms.
   Shear has started to increase over the last hour on the KSRX VWP
   with 0-1km SRH around 225 m2/s2 and 0-500m SRH around 150 m2/s2 as
   of 2035Z. This increase in shear, combined with a pocket of moderate
   instability has provided an environment favorable for a few
   tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours. The greatest threat will be
   with any supercells which can avoid interference which in the short
   term favors the storm entering southern Cherokee County in Oklahoma.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35259472 35729539 36119566 36699540 37289469 37029366
               36349355 35509400 35179430 35259472