Mesoscale Discussion 2208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

   Areas affected...Central to northeast Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 704...

   Valid 042138Z - 042345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern TX/WW 704, but
   becomes less clear further south into central TX where convection
   along a cold front has been slow to develop.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, supercells across the DFW area
   have struggled to become well organized despite a favorable
   thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some uptick in intensity
   has been noted over the past 20-30 minutes as these cells begin to
   interact with the approaching cold front/outflow boundary. A large
   hail threat will likely persist for the next hour before these
   storms fully transition into a somewhat more consolidated and
   balanced line. After this point, the potential for damaging/severe
   winds should increase downstream into northeast TX with an attendant
   threat for embedded circulations given the favorable low-level wind
   profile (0-1 km SRH remains at around 150 m2/s2). 

   Ahead of this line, shallower convection developing along a weak
   confluence axis continues to percolate across northeastern TX. This
   activity resides on the western periphery of a somewhat more buoyant
   air mass (SBCAPE upwards of 2500 J/kg), but weak forcing for ascent
   casts some uncertainty onto how intense this convection will become.
   These storms reside well within the best low-level kinematic fields
   based on recent upper-air analyses. If a robust supercell can be
   established, a more prominent hail/tornado threat may emerge. 

   Further south along the front into central TX, convective
   development has been meager with only a few attempts at deeper
   convection noted in satellite imagery. The downstream environment
   ahead of the front remains favorable for robust convection, which
   would likely develop quickly into an organized line, and latest CAM
   solutions continue to suggest that development across central TX is
   likely in the coming hours. Trends are being monitored, and watch
   issuance may be needed once robust initiation along the front
   becomes apparent.

   ..Moore.. 11/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31239554 31049583 30939610 30499759 30439812 30509841
               30779858 30949852 31129839 31399805 31789763 32079736
               32459714 33389667 33859576 33879514 33729478 33509453
               33199451 31549533 31239554