Mesoscale Discussion 2212
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0814 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

   Areas affected...South-central Missouri and portions of western
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 705...

   Valid 050214Z - 050345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 705 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for embedded severe gusts and perhaps a
   brief tornado continues across portions of Tornado Watch 705. A
   local watch extension or a new watch could eventually be needed,
   though it is unclear how long the severe risk will persist.

   DISCUSSION...A northeast/southwest-oriented semi-continuous
   convective line continues to advance slowly east-northeastward from
   south-central MO into western AR, with additional
   warm-advection-driven cells immediately ahead of the line. Regional
   VWP data depicts around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented parallel to
   the convective line, generally supporting a continued linear mode.
   While meager instability is generally limiting updraft intensity,
   upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints (decreasing with northward extent)
   and a 50-55 kt low-level jet (and related warm
   advection/clockwise-curved hodographs) may support a continued
   severe threat for the next couple of hours. The primary concerns are
   embedded severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two (both
   embedded in the line and with any discrete cells ahead of the line).
   It is unclear if a local watch extension or new watch will be
   needed, though convective trends are being monitored.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 11/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34969455 37089265 37649234 38059240 38069209 37789161
               37289149 36619180 34799346 34599393 34609454 34969455