Mesoscale Discussion 2217
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

   Areas affected...part of the Texas Edwards Plateau vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072304Z - 080100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is slowly increasing with further
   upscale growth possible into mid to late evening, accompanied by a
   risk for severe hail initially, then perhaps a few strong surface
   gusts later this evening.  The risk for tornadoes appears low, but
   perhaps not out of the question.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is in the process of initiating
   near/southwest through northwest of San Angelo.  This appears
   focused along a diffuse dryline structure, near its intersection
   with a baroclinic zone within broad weak surface troughing. 
   Although mid-level lapse rates do not appear particularly steep, a
   fairly deep moist boundary may be contributing to CAPE up to 1500
   J/kg, beneath strong, broadly difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow.
    Despite generally weak to modest low-level forcing for ascent,
   continuing moist unstable inflow in the presence of weakened
   mid-level inhibition may be sufficient to support a gradual further
   increase in convective development and upscale growth.  Given the
   environment, this may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail in
   stronger storms initially, then perhaps some increase in potential
   for strong surface gusts later this evening as activity slowly
   shifts northeastward/eastward.

   ..Kerr/Gleason.. 11/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31360098 32070070 32549982 31650004 31100038 30890090
               31070105 31360098