Mesoscale Discussion 2218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

   Areas affected...west central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707...

   Valid 080151Z - 080245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 707
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe
   hail and locally strong surface gusts may persist through late
   evening, southwest of San Angelo into and northeast of the San
   Angelo vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...Initial stronger convection has generally consolidated
   into one small cluster with an embedded supercell, likely aided by
   low-level forcing for ascent associated with weak warm advection. 
   This convection might now be at least slightly elevated above more
   stable boundary-layer air and probably will begin to acquire more
   stable updraft inflow as it progresses slowly east-northeastward
   into areas northwest of Brownwood during the next hour or two.

   To the south and southwest of San Angelo, more discrete widely
   scattered convective cells are still struggling to overcome somewhat
   stronger mid-level inhibition.  However, low-level convergence
   appears to have increased along a remnant dryline where it is being
   overtaken by a cold frontal surge.  The latest High Resolution Rapid
   Refresh suggests this might become a focus for increasing
   thunderstorm development through 04-06Z, though the convection may
   tend to intensify to the cool side of the surface boundary.

   ..Kerr.. 11/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31360085 32129992 32299946 32049878 31429999 30120122
               30850140 31360085