Mesoscale Discussion 2233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

   Areas affected...northeast TX and far southeast OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181529Z - 181730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado and localized damaging wind threat will
   exist through early afternoon with mesovortices within a line of
   low-topped convection moving east-northeast across northeast Texas.
   A watch may be necessary if greater deepening into thunderstorms
   occurs.

   DISCUSSION...Several transient and generally weak mesovortices have
   been noted around the Metroplex with a largely north/south-oriented
   convective line moving east-northeastward. Low-level shear is quite
   strong ahead of the line per area VWPs and will remain so into early
   afternoon. Convective depth has been a limiting factor to more
   persistent/stronger mesovortices, with a lack of CG lightning
   production and echo tops to around 25k ft. It appears the northern
   tip of 67-68 F surface dew points may be necessary for a consistent
   severe threat. This should tend to ripple slowly southward into
   early afternoon as the convective line occludes the rich low-level
   moisture plume emanating north across east TX.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32789687 33489682 33939649 34099583 33909504 33469499
               32919497 32479503 32069524 31459567 31179641 31449690
               32789687