Mesoscale Discussion 2237
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

   Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190549Z - 190715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are possible
   with convection as it progresses across the lower Mississippi
   Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Surface front continues to advance slowly east across
   LA into western MS late this evening. This boundary is becoming less
   forced with time as the primary upper trough is lifting
   north-northeast across western IA. Some semblance of a LLJ persists
   ahead of the front from southeast LA into MS, and this appears to be
   aiding frontal convection that is currently concentrated from
   western MS into southwest LA. Latest radar data suggests some
   organization to the squall line and a few bow-type structures are
   evident along the leading edge of convection. Gusty winds, and
   perhaps some risk for a brief tornado, can be expected with
   convection as it propagates east into the early morning hours.
   Current thinking is the severe threat may remain a bit too isolated
   to warrant a watch, but will continue to monitor the lower MS
   Valley.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 11/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30199264 32449081 32119008 30229160 30199264