SPC AC 310050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

   Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms, with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
   will be possible this evening from southeast Lower Michigan
   southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...Southern Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   The latest mosaic water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough
   over the western Great Lakes extending southward into the mid
   Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is analyzed from
   southeast Lower Michigan southwestward to near St. Louis, Missouri.
   Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the front.
   Surface dewpoints near and ahead of the front are in the upper 60s
   and lower 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2500 J/k/g
   range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the front have 0-6 km
   shear ranging from near 20 knot at St. Louis to around 30 knots at
   Detroit. This environment, combined with steep low-level lapse rates
   near 7 C/km, should be enough for a marginally severe wind gusts for
   a couple more hours this evening. Hail could also occur within the
   cores of the stronger multicells.

   ..Broyles.. 08/31/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z