SPC AC 190534

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
   ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the
   lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging
   wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern
   Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois.

   ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley...

   A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High
   Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period,
   becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes
   vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest
   deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread
   portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a
   500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around
   21-00z. 

   At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period
   will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into
   southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the
   region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across
   MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer
   moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low
   60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from
   eastern OK/AR southward.

   Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of
   destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of
   precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger
   destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse
   rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the
   day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward
   east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
   profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the
   eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale
   into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold
   front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm
   mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping
   low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km
   SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be
   possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an
   eastward progressing line.

   ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025

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