SEL8

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 538
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western and Central New York
     Northern Pennsylvania
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify through
   the afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area.  The
   strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and some
   hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
   statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest
   of Jamestown NY to 30 miles south of Utica NY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27030.

   ...Hart

   SEL8

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 538
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western and Central New York
     Northern Pennsylvania
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify through
   the afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area.  The
   strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and some
   hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
   statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest
   of Jamestown NY to 30 miles south of Utica NY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27030.

   ...Hart

   WOUS64 KWNS 151618
   WOU8

   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2024

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055-
   063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-
   152300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0538.240715T1620Z-240715T2300Z/

   NY 
   .    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ALLEGANY             BROOME              CATTARAUGUS         
   CAYUGA               CHAUTAUQUA          CHEMUNG             
   CHENANGO             CORTLAND            ERIE                
   GENESEE              JEFFERSON           LEWIS               
   LIVINGSTON           MADISON             MONROE              
   NIAGARA              ONEIDA              ONONDAGA            
   ONTARIO              ORLEANS             OSWEGO              
   SCHUYLER             SENECA              STEUBEN             
   TIOGA                TOMPKINS            WAYNE               
   WYOMING              YATES               


   PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-152300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0538.240715T1620Z-240715T2300Z/

   PA 
   .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   BRADFORD             CAMERON             CLINTON             
   ELK                  LYCOMING            MCKEAN              
   POTTER               SULLIVAN            SUSQUEHANNA         
   TIOGA                WARREN              WYOMING             


   LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-
   152300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0538.240715T1620Z-240715T2300Z/

   CW 

   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

   UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

   RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

   DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

   RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

   NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 

   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

   NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
   TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...

   SAW8 
   WW 538 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 151620Z - 152300Z
   AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   30WNW JHW/JAMESTOWN NY/ - 30S UCA/UTICA NY/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /29NE ERI - 39N HNK/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

   LAT...LON 43337979 43737537 41707537 41307979

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU8.

Watch 538 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 538

VALID 152245Z - 152340Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW IPT
TO 20 SSE ELM TO 20 W SYR TO 35 NW ART.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637

..MOORE..07/15/24

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC007-017-023-045-049-053-065-067-107-109-152340-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOME		     CHENANGO		 CORTLAND	     
JEFFERSON	     LEWIS		 MADISON	     
ONEIDA		     ONONDAGA		 TIOGA		     
TOMPKINS	     
$$


PAC015-069-079-113-115-127-131-152340-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     LACKAWANNA 	 LUZERNE	     
SULLIVAN	     SUSQUEHANNA	 WAYNE		     
WYOMING 	     
$$


LOZ030-044-045-065-152340-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 538

VALID 151945Z - 152040Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..DEAN..07/15/24

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055-
063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-
152040-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CORTLAND		 ERIE		     
GENESEE 	     JEFFERSON		 LEWIS		     
LIVINGSTON	     MADISON		 MONROE 	     
NIAGARA 	     ONEIDA		 ONONDAGA	     
ONTARIO 	     ORLEANS		 OSWEGO 	     
SCHUYLER	     SENECA		 STEUBEN	     
TIOGA		     TOMPKINS		 WAYNE		     
WYOMING 	     YATES		 
$$


PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-152040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLINTON	     
ELK		     LYCOMING		 MCKEAN 	     
POTTER		     SULLIVAN		 SUSQUEHANNA	     
TIOGA		     WARREN		 WYOMING	     
$$


LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-
152040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 538

VALID 151645Z - 151740Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..DEAN..07/15/24

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-045-049-051-053-055-
063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-
151740-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CORTLAND		 ERIE		     
GENESEE 	     JEFFERSON		 LEWIS		     
LIVINGSTON	     MADISON		 MONROE 	     
NIAGARA 	     ONEIDA		 ONONDAGA	     
ONTARIO 	     ORLEANS		 OSWEGO 	     
SCHUYLER	     SENECA		 STEUBEN	     
TIOGA		     TOMPKINS		 WAYNE		     
WYOMING 	     YATES		 
$$


PAC015-023-035-047-081-083-105-113-115-117-123-131-151740-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD	     CAMERON		 CLINTON	     
ELK		     LYCOMING		 MCKEAN 	     
POTTER		     SULLIVAN		 SUSQUEHANNA	     
TIOGA		     WARREN		 WYOMING	     
$$


LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ030-042-043-044-045-062-063-064-065-
151740-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LOWER NIAGARA RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR 

RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY 

DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY 

RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service NWS Public Alerts for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.