Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Lower Michigan
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently moving across Lake Michigan will
spread into Lower Michigan soon. A few of the storms may pose a
risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail through early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of
Muskegon MI to 15 miles southeast of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 267...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 268 SEVERE TSTM MI LM 202040Z - 210200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NE MKG/MUSKEGON MI/ - 15SE AZO/KALAMAZOO MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /42NE MKG - 41SE PMM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..55 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 43728435 42078427 42078642 43728655
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 268 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 268
VALID 210055Z - 210200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO
TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL.
WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z.
..BENTLEY..05/21/24
ATTN...WFO...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLINTON EATON
GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 268
VALID 202350Z - 210040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE BEH
TO 25 WNW AZO TO 5 WSW GRR TO 15 NNE GRR TO 40 ESE MBL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 857
..BENTLEY..05/20/24
ATTN...WFO...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-025-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-107-117-159-
210040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY CALHOUN
CLINTON EATON GRATIOT
INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT
MECOSTA MONTCALM VAN BUREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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