Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Iowa
Northeast and East-Central Kansas
Northern and Western Missouri
Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1140 PM
until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for
large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter overnight. The threat for
severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph will likely increase as an
intense bowing cluster forms and moves southeastward through the
early morning hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Lincoln NE to 40 miles southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31035.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 461 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 260440Z - 261200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WSW LNK/LINCOLN NE/ - 40SE CDJ/CHILLICOTHE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /58WNW PWE - 49SSW IRK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31035.
LAT...LON 41779730 40499305 38329305 39599730
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 461 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 461
VALID 261030Z - 261140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SZL
TO 30 ESE SZL.
..MOSIER..06/26/24
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-111-261140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY LYON
$$
MOC013-083-261140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES HENRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 461
VALID 260940Z - 261040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E TOP TO
45 SE CDJ.
..MOSIER..06/26/24
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-045-059-091-107-111-121-127-139-209-261040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JOHNSON LINN
LYON MIAMI MORRIS
OSAGE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC013-037-053-083-089-095-101-107-159-195-261040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CASS COOPER
HENRY HOWARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE PETTIS
SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 461
VALID 260845Z - 260940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK
TO 5 SSW STJ TO 30 ESE CDJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
..MOSIER..06/26/24
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-005-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-111-
121-127-139-143-149-161-177-197-209-260940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON
MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC013-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-083-089-095-101-107-159-
165-175-177-195-260940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CARROLL CASS CHARITON
CLAY CLINTON COOPER
HENRY HOWARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE PETTIS
PLATTE RANDOLPH RAY
SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 461
VALID 260715Z - 260840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BIE TO
25 ESE LNK TO 30 E LWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1421 AND 1422
..MOSIER..06/26/24
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DMX...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 461
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-005-013-027-029-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-
107-111-117-121-127-131-139-143-149-157-161-177-197-201-209-
260840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN
CLAY CLOUD COFFEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
LINN LYON MARSHALL
MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA
OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RILEY SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-013-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-
081-083-087-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-147-159-165-175-177-
195-211-227-260840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BATES
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CHARITON CLAY
CLINTON COOPER DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HENRY HOLT
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER NODAWAY
PETTIS PLATTE RANDOLPH
RAY SALINE SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
NEC067-095-097-127-131-133-147-260840-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.