Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central New York
Northern Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1105 AM until
600 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify rapidly across
western New York and track across the watch area. Favorably strong
winds aloft and warm/moist conditions will favor a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail in the stronger cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Buffalo NY to 20 miles east southeast of Utica NY. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 546 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 161505Z - 162200Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30SSW BUF/BUFFALO NY/ - 20ESE UCA/UTICA NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /22NNE JHW - 53E SYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 43477896 43987501 42107501 41597896
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 546 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 546
VALID 161855Z - 161940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE IPT
TO 35 W ART.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
..HALBERT..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-011-017-023-025-045-049-053-065-067-075-077-107-109-
161940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CAYUGA CHENANGO
CORTLAND DELAWARE JEFFERSON
LEWIS MADISON ONEIDA
ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO
TIOGA TOMPKINS
$$
PAC015-115-161940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD SUSQUEHANNA
$$
LOZ044-045-064-065-161940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 546
VALID 161755Z - 161840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW IPT
TO 40 W ELM TO 40 N ROC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
..HALBERT..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-011-015-017-023-025-045-049-053-065-067-069-075-077-097-
099-101-107-109-117-123-161840-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG
CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE
JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON
ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO
OSWEGO OTSEGO SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA
TOMPKINS WAYNE YATES
$$
PAC015-115-117-161840-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA
$$
LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-161840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 546
VALID 161645Z - 161740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE JHW
TO 25 SSE BUF TO 40 NNE BUF.
..HALBERT..07/16/24
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-007-009-011-015-017-023-025-037-045-049-051-053-055-065-
067-069-073-075-077-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-161740-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS
CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO
CORTLAND DELAWARE GENESEE
JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON
MADISON MONROE ONEIDA
ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS
OSWEGO OTSEGO SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA
TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING
YATES
$$
PAC015-083-105-115-117-161740-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD MCKEAN POTTER
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA
$$
LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-161740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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